October 13, 2006
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Here is something I was thinking about:
What is the percent chance you have of answering this question right?
A. 20%
B. 40%
C. 20%
D. 60%
E. 80%Now, starting with the fact that there are five answers, the first inclination anyone should make is that they have a 1 in 5 chance to select correctly, or 20%. Thus, he or she looks for 20% in the possible answers. But there are two 20% options, thus increasing the percent chance of the person to 40%. This makes the answer A, B, and C. However, now that there are three correct solutions the percent chance is now 60%, or D. Now we can automatically assume that 4 of the 5 answers are right, which is 80%, choice E.
Therefore any and all answers are acceptable. But this makes the correct answer 100%, which is not listed. And if the correct answer is not listed, the real percent chance to answer correctly is 0%. That is interesting: the fact that the correct answer is not there changes what the correct answer actually is.
Just to let you know, there is no point to this. It was just fun to think about.
Comments (17)
I love you phil, i am not ashamed to tell. Im glad you think about these sort of things, someone needs to.
I read this aloud to my husband. He’s still chuckling over it. “That is the coolest trick question I’ve ever come across,” he quips.
well I’ve gotta tell you phil..I’m glad you have the time to think about these things but you should warn me before you have a mth xanga post…for example write really big at the top
**********Kaitlyn this involves math DO NOT read!!!!!***********
yes I would appreciate that alot thanks!
Phill. How are you in Hilliard?? Man.. I hope you have good time. I took SAT in Saturday and I got pawned… AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH~~~~~~~~~~~~~~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
no no no, justices only work from september to june!
haha well no math related posts would be even better than a warning…thanks for the heads up!
Your logic is flawed, I think.
Guessing randomly, there is a 20% chance, so that would mean that two possible answers are right.
Answering 20% is actually 40% likely to be true. Therefore, 40% is the most likely answer, not 20%.
If 20% is not the most likely answer, then there is only a 20% likelihood of answering correctly, because it means that 40% is no longer the most likely answer.
B contradicts A and C, so you can never actually get to the stage of even considering D.
Because B immediately nullifies its basis, A and/or C are the most likely answers.
The correct answer is 20%.
Holy jihad, did I actually just put myself through that?!?
Yeah, so my logic is flawed, too.
This is going to drive me insane…I’m emailing it to my brother-in-law…(he’s all-knowing)
I’m shooting a short film comedy about a kid who attends a university for the gifted and feels like he is the only normal person in his life.
Yes, the naz breaks Ohio up into 5 sections – the northern part of ohio is broken up into 3 “districts” of churches – Northwest, North Central, and Eastern. Then approximately using I70 as the dividing point, the south is broken into two sections (there are less churches in southern ohio) – I71 is approximately the dividing point. So my district “Central Ohio” runs from I70/I71 to the Ohio River, approximately.
The next quiz in the more central part of my district will be the first Saturday of January. We’ll be at Circleville Church of the Nazarene, Circleville, OH – just about an hour south of Columbus.
P.S. I loved your question.
Rest assured my friend, I’m not writing my pearls anywhere else. I’m just on myspace for the chicks…
Michael
hello & greetings.
I don’t think I would ever use it, I just found it interesting. today in apologetics we were talking about Hell and how Christians shy away from it, cuz it is offensive. I, however, do not. I in some ways have john the baptist approach, i like it. REPENT or YOU WILL GO TO HELL. i am quite blunt….being that i want to be a missionary to the mulisms, it may get me killed, i will have to tone it down a bit. i mean, my brother who is 11 has been preaching that, since the age of 9, he is going to be the next billy graham. prays before going to talk to the person and prays after, i love my little bro.
:]
…. who the heck ARE you!?